Legendary investor Warren Buffett is famous for his long-term perspective. He has said that he likes to make investments he would be comfortable holding even if the market shut down for 10 years.
Investing with an eye toward the long term is particularly important with stocks. Historically, equities have typically outperformed bonds, cash, and inflation, though past performance is no guarantee of future results and those returns also have involved higher volatility.
It can be challenging to have Buffett-like patience during periods such as 2000-2002, when the stock market fell for 3 years in a row, or 2008, which was the worst year for the Standard & Poor's 500 index since the Depression era. Times like those can frazzle the nerves of any investor, even the pros. With stocks, having an investing strategy is only half the battle; the other half is being able to stick to it.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged group of securities that is considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.
Your own definition of "long term" is most important, and will depend in part on your individual financial goals and when you want to achieve them. A 70-year-old retiree may have a shorter "long term" than a 30-year-old who is saving for retirement.
Your strategy should take into account that the market will not go in one direction forever — either up or down.
Trying to second-guess the market can be challenging at best; even professionals often have trouble. According to "Behavioral Patterns and Pitfalls of U.S. Investors," a 2010 Library of Congress report prepared for the Securities and Exchange Commission, excessive trading often causes investors to underperform the market.
Note: Though past performance is no guarantee of future results, the odds of achieving a positive return in the stock market have been much higher over a 5- or 10-year period than for a single year.
1Another study, "Stock Market Extremes and Portfolio Performance 1926-2004," initially done by the University of Michigan in 1994 and updated in 2005, showed that a handful of months or days account for most market gains and losses. The return dropped dramatically on a portfolio that was out of the stock market entirely on the 90 best trading days in history. Returns also improved just as dramatically by avoiding the market's 90 worst days; the problem, of course, is being able to forecast which days those will be. Even if you're able to avoid losses by being out of the market, will you know when to get back in?
It's useful to have strategies in place that can help improve your financial and psychological readiness to take a long-term approach to investing in equities. Even if you're not a buy-and-hold investor, a trading discipline can help you stick to a long-term plan.
Having predetermined guidelines that anticipate turbulent times can help prevent emotion from dictating your decisions. For example, you might determine in advance that you will take profits when the market rises by a certain percentage, and buy when the market has fallen by a set percentage. Or you might take a core-and-satellite approach, using buy-and-hold principles for most of your portfolio and tactical investing based on a shorter-term outlook for the rest.
All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The amount of a company's dividend can fluctuate with earnings, which are influenced by economic, market, and political events. Dividends are typically not guaranteed and could be changed or eliminated.
Most of the variance in the returns of different portfolios is based on their respective asset allocations. If you've got a well-diversified portfolio, it might be useful to compare its overall performance to the S&P 500. If you discover you've done better than, say, the stock market as a whole, you might feel better about your long-term prospects.
Don't forget to look at how far you've come since you started investing. When you're focused on day-to-day market movements, it's easy to forget the progress you've already made. Keeping track of where you stand relative to not only last year but to 3, 5, and 10 years ago may help you remember that the current situation is unlikely to last forever.
Some investors try to prepare for volatile periods by reexamining their allocation to such defensive sectors as consumer staples or utilities (though like all stocks, those sectors involve their own risks). Dividends also can help cushion the impact of price swings.
If you're retired and worried about a market downturn's impact on your income, think before reacting. If you sell stock during a period of falling prices simply because that was your original game plan, you might not get the best price. Moreover, that sale might also reduce your ability to generate income in later years. What might it cost you in future returns by selling stocks at a low point if you don't need to? Perhaps you could adjust your lifestyle temporarily.
Having some cash holdings can be the financial equivalent of taking deep breaths to relax. It can enhance your ability to act thoughtfully instead of impulsively. An appropriate asset allocation can help you have enough resources on hand to prevent having to sell stocks at an inopportune time to meet ordinary expenses or, if you've used leverage, a margin call.
A cash cushion coupled with a disciplined investing strategy can change your perspective on market downturns. Knowing that you're positioned to take advantage of a market swoon by picking up bargains may increase your ability to be patient.
When the market goes off the tracks, knowing why you made a specific investment can help you evaluate whether those reasons still hold. If you don't understand why a security is in your portfolio, find out. A stock may still be a good long-term opportunity even when its price has dropped.
The market is nothing if not cyclical. Even if you wish you had sold at what turned out to be a market peak, or regret having sat out a buying opportunity, you may get another chance. If you're considering changes, a volatile market is probably the worst time to turn your portfolio inside out. Solid asset allocation is still the basis of good investment planning.
Anyone can look good during bull markets; smart investors are produced by the inevitable rough patches. Even the best aren't right all the time. If an earlier choice now seems rash, sometimes the best strategy is to take a tax loss, learn from the experience, and apply the lesson to future decisions.
1- Data Source: Refinitiv, 2022. S&P 500 composite total return for the period December 31, 1981, to December 31, 2021. Ranges consider the 40 one-year periods, 36 five-year periods, and 31 ten-year periods from 1982 to 2021.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. does not provide investment, tax, legal, or retirement advice or recommendations. The information presented here is not specific to any individual's personal circumstances. To the extent that this material concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayer should seek independent advice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable — we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice.
